* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL952007 06/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 25 27 32 35 38 41 42 37 33 26 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 30 35 37 40 43 44 40 36 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 27 27 27 28 30 33 36 36 33 29 SHEAR (KTS) 27 28 28 28 23 22 9 12 17 54 82 69 35 SHEAR DIR 273 272 279 289 292 274 286 278 241 229 216 217 234 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.2 22.6 22.0 8.1 7.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 138 135 131 123 115 109 103 97 95 66 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 120 117 115 111 106 100 98 96 94 91 65 60 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 -55.5 -55.0 -53.2 -50.1 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 9 11 9 8 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 59 61 62 67 67 61 55 52 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 5 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -51 -45 -44 -37 -3 0 41 19 60 124 149 30 200 MB DIV 0 -11 -21 -37 -8 0 13 -11 35 48 49 36 -10 LAND (KM) -53 -43 -12 41 96 228 416 531 684 990 661 151 85 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.6 30.5 31.7 34.3 40.4 45.9 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.6 80.4 80.0 79.6 78.3 76.5 74.0 70.0 64.1 56.4 51.5 51.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 15 23 35 38 18 5 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 6 3 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 17. 13. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 17. 13. 6. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 06/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 06/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY