* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL952007 06/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 30 34 37 39 38 34 30 26 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 28 30 34 37 41 42 41 37 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 27 27 28 29 32 34 35 33 30 27 SHEAR (KTS) 29 26 27 22 13 18 10 13 27 55 78 20 16 SHEAR DIR 269 275 281 297 271 283 269 271 237 245 229 297 305 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.3 24.1 22.6 22.8 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 133 131 123 116 110 103 97 97 127 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 115 113 111 106 101 99 96 94 90 130 96 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -52.5 -55.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 10 9 10 8 5 2 1 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 61 60 61 68 60 55 47 48 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -43 -56 -51 -30 -11 18 13 -14 27 64 -64 -58 200 MB DIV -3 -4 -25 -13 25 -9 10 4 17 0 28 11 -32 LAND (KM) -87 -55 -19 33 78 209 409 492 708 953 755 297 251 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.9 30.9 31.8 34.8 39.8 30.8 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 80.8 80.6 80.2 79.8 78.6 76.7 74.0 69.6 63.9 55.6 77.7 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 11 16 23 35 30 50 4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 5 2 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 14. 10. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 14. 10. 6. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 06/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 06/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY