* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL952007 06/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 30 34 38 40 37 33 28 23 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 28 30 33 37 42 44 40 36 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 28 28 29 31 34 37 38 35 30 26 SHEAR (KTS) 29 28 22 16 16 7 6 4 34 63 81 22 28 SHEAR DIR 270 279 298 282 295 333 251 261 237 246 238 320 307 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.2 23.9 22.6 22.8 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 131 129 121 114 109 101 96 98 128 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 113 111 110 104 100 98 94 91 93 131 93 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 -53.7 -54.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 8 9 6 3 2 1 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 62 61 68 69 70 54 48 35 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -49 -58 -38 -22 9 30 2 7 21 46 -60 -61 200 MB DIV 19 -5 -20 9 -4 6 16 18 17 26 18 -12 -22 LAND (KM) -95 -62 -38 23 84 249 419 530 720 976 840 136 108 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.8 32.0 34.5 38.5 30.7 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.2 81.0 80.6 80.1 78.5 76.4 73.4 69.3 64.0 56.5 80.0 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 8 11 16 22 31 34 52 4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 4. -1. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 17. 13. 8. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 17. 13. 8. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 06/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 06/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY