* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL952007 06/30/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 37 42 44 40 36 33 30
V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 28 30 35 40 45 46 43 39 36 33
V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 27 28 29 32 36 39 39 35 31 29
SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 17 19 15 6 6 15 28 56 73 32 27
SHEAR DIR 289 295 291 291 299 290 352 255 250 253 253 269 280
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.9 25.8 25.3 23.8 22.6 22.0 25.9 25.0
POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 134 131 123 113 110 100 95 91 120 106
ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 114 113 112 106 100 99 92 88 84 116 93
200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.4 -55.1 -55.9 -55.6 -56.2 -55.1 -56.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 11 8 5 3 2 2 7 5
700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 66 69 67 70 58 48 41 33 58 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -55 -34 -25 -25 -25 3 -6 7 -7 -13 -6 4 10
200 MB DIV -24 14 -2 -11 1 -5 28 6 0 -18 -7 5 18
LAND (KM) -75 -42 -10 41 92 257 489 633 804 1042 949 240 299
LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.2 31.8 33.9 37.0 32.8 34.2
LONG(DEG W) 81.0 80.8 80.5 80.1 79.6 78.0 75.7 72.5 68.4 63.8 58.0 75.5 73.0
STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 9 13 16 21 25 24 32 13
HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 4 1 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 20. 23. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 5. 0. -4. -7.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 20. 16. 13. 11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 20. 16. 13. 11.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 06/30/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 06/30/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY