* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL952007 06/30/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 35 37 36 33 29 24 20 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 28 30 34 38 40 40 36 32 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 25 26 27 29 31 34 34 32 28 24 21 SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 19 13 2 5 13 25 40 55 76 80 26 SHEAR DIR 290 288 291 301 242 254 213 255 244 266 254 259 300 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.6 25.6 25.1 23.8 22.6 22.4 19.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 131 127 119 111 108 100 95 95 84 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 114 111 109 104 98 97 92 89 90 79 102 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.7 -56.5 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 6 700-500 MB RH 69 66 69 71 69 65 61 51 47 44 35 39 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -28 -27 -22 0 -9 0 -26 -26 -4 -36 -60 -20 200 MB DIV 12 7 0 9 36 11 25 -25 14 19 18 -4 -17 LAND (KM) -54 -10 34 96 156 324 545 630 812 1038 885 753 502 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.5 30.5 31.8 34.1 37.7 40.3 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 80.5 80.1 79.6 79.0 77.3 75.1 72.1 68.3 63.5 57.6 50.0 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 16 20 26 31 27 89 HEAT CONTENT 9999 8 8 4 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 3. -2. -7. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 16. 13. 9. 4. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 16. 13. 9. 4. 0. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 06/30/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 06/30/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY