* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 07/03/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 25 25 26 27 25 26 28 30 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 25 25 26 27 25 26 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 22 23 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 22 23 21 14 16 15 19 19 16 13 7 SHEAR DIR 78 68 73 88 94 108 154 222 236 248 239 280 270 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.7 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 125 122 119 119 122 129 132 136 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 127 122 119 119 122 128 129 135 133 126 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 55 55 58 56 48 41 37 38 41 43 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 13 14 20 35 61 32 23 15 17 16 -3 -13 200 MB DIV -6 -1 -17 -2 -4 -7 8 -57 -48 -1 -2 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1378 1369 1373 1370 1290 1126 1008 903 864 761 612 623 509 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.3 11.1 11.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.7 16.9 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.7 38.8 40.1 41.3 43.9 46.6 49.5 52.3 54.8 57.0 60.0 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 12 14 12 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 6 4 6 8 5 6 3 6 7 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 9. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 6. 8. 10. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/03/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/03/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY