* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 07/03/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 28 29 30 31 27 25 23 23 25 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 28 29 30 31 27 25 23 23 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 27 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 22 18 16 16 11 22 24 20 18 16 15 SHEAR DIR 68 87 96 107 104 125 202 217 243 246 274 254 279 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 121 119 118 121 127 131 134 135 138 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 122 120 119 117 121 127 129 130 128 133 141 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 54 57 54 50 42 41 43 44 45 48 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 10 7 7 4 3 2 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 22 33 44 37 28 17 12 9 -1 -6 -23 200 MB DIV -16 -18 -14 -19 -19 7 -55 -51 1 -3 -15 -30 2 LAND (KM) 1423 1420 1364 1276 1198 1067 929 877 844 661 586 600 400 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.8 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.0 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.4 40.5 41.7 42.9 45.6 48.4 51.2 53.9 56.3 58.0 59.5 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 8 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 1 8 6 6 3 6 3 1 9 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. 0. -2. -2. 0. 0. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/03/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/03/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY