* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962007 07/03/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 26 27 29 30 33 33
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 26 27 29 30 33 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 21 22 23 24 24 26 28
SHEAR (KTS) 23 27 25 24 24 12 9 22 15 16 14 18 20
SHEAR DIR 98 108 111 116 109 128 227 260 268 267 272 270 271
SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 119 118 118 119 121 125 130 133 133 138 145
ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 116 115 115 117 120 123 128 133 134 139 146
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.7 -55.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11
700-500 MB RH 52 55 53 53 53 47 45 50 53 53 54 56 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 27 39 35 31 20 7 2 0 11 11 24
200 MB DIV -13 -18 -16 -15 0 -3 -66 -45 4 22 -3 9 19
LAND (KM) 1427 1354 1282 1214 1151 1024 879 779 730 719 482 355 444
LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.7 41.6 42.5 43.3 45.2 47.6 49.8 51.8 54.3 57.3 60.2 63.1
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 12 14 15 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 1 3 8 3 5 1 6 3 5 4 7 1 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/03/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/03/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY