* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 07/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 29 30 32 33 35 38 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 29 30 32 33 35 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 25 26 28 29 31 SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 22 21 17 10 16 18 19 21 15 19 20 SHEAR DIR 94 106 113 123 142 210 231 261 254 282 264 280 262 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.8 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 119 120 124 131 133 135 140 142 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 119 120 120 126 133 133 133 136 137 139 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 46 45 41 41 43 43 48 44 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 27 28 22 11 3 10 16 11 -4 -8 -3 200 MB DIV -23 -19 -22 -6 3 -54 -62 -6 -5 -12 -15 -7 -23 LAND (KM) 1357 1261 1174 1088 1016 867 805 653 462 446 435 217 53 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.8 16.1 17.2 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.0 43.2 44.7 46.1 49.2 52.5 55.6 58.4 60.6 62.3 64.0 66.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 15 15 16 16 15 13 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 7 4 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 15. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY