* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 07/04/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 33 33 33 33 33 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 33 33 33 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 30 30 29 27 24 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 18 13 6 1 14 19 23 18 23 23 27 SHEAR DIR 94 104 105 130 123 160 265 275 276 281 285 291 290 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 119 119 120 122 125 132 136 133 133 132 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 115 116 117 120 124 131 138 135 135 132 124 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 48 48 48 50 53 55 58 65 64 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 12 15 14 -4 -9 -7 -14 9 12 25 17 200 MB DIV -21 -18 -17 -8 -23 -38 -28 -4 18 5 26 -1 20 LAND (KM) 1278 1228 1179 1104 1033 885 750 637 546 460 262 -10 -21 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.1 42.7 43.6 44.5 46.6 48.6 50.7 52.9 55.6 58.6 61.1 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 10 10 10 10 12 14 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 1 1 1 7 0 4 5 6 1 7 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY