* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962007 07/04/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 32 34 35 35 36 39 38
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 32 34 35 35 36 39 38
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 30 30 29 28 28 28
SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 9 4 5 18 24 23 23 24 22 23 27
SHEAR DIR 105 113 144 219 256 244 271 260 272 263 279 259 292
SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 123 125 131 133 134 140 145 146 150 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 122 125 128 134 135 134 138 143 143 146 151
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 10 10 11 10
700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 44 43 43 47 44 51 51 51 47 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 5 10 15 11 2 -12 -7 8 10 8 -5 2 21
200 MB DIV -20 -25 -16 -30 -52 -61 -11 -6 3 -10 -4 -13 20
LAND (KM) 1161 1068 988 906 826 744 658 419 377 447 185 69 64
LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.0 16.4 17.5 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.3 45.6 47.2 48.7 52.0 55.3 58.3 60.9 63.1 65.4 67.6 70.8
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 16 16 14 12 12 12 13 15
HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 5 7 5 5 0 2 2 7 8 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. 16.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 14. 13.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY