* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 07/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 39 40 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 39 40 41 42 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 35 35 35 35 SHEAR (KTS) 15 9 1 3 5 17 13 23 23 26 20 26 17 SHEAR DIR 100 111 158 262 275 265 266 268 277 280 275 286 303 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 123 124 128 133 133 137 144 146 148 151 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 124 127 131 136 135 138 144 145 146 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 47 45 46 44 45 48 48 49 50 51 51 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 4 0 -14 -16 -1 5 8 13 15 26 21 200 MB DIV -22 -13 -35 -58 -62 -38 12 15 -16 -3 9 -4 12 LAND (KM) 1087 1001 923 838 780 736 527 341 411 314 190 114 -8 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.1 45.4 46.7 48.4 50.0 53.4 56.7 59.7 62.5 65.0 67.5 70.3 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 17 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 5 7 4 2 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 19. 21. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED