* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL962007 07/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 38 38 42 45 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 38 38 42 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 33 32 31 32 33 34 SHEAR (KTS) 9 1 3 5 14 18 24 23 26 19 17 19 10 SHEAR DIR 87 105 296 269 249 263 252 276 278 293 267 308 278 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 124 128 131 134 135 140 145 147 150 156 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 126 131 135 136 136 140 145 146 150 156 163 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 10 9 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 45 46 48 47 50 48 52 50 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 -11 -17 -21 -20 -1 0 2 4 11 2 -7 200 MB DIV -18 -37 -58 -58 -42 -2 -8 -7 -28 -10 -2 14 -16 LAND (KM) 1006 925 843 781 739 698 452 357 438 255 191 28 88 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.8 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 46.6 48.0 49.7 51.3 54.6 57.8 60.7 63.5 66.1 69.0 71.9 75.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 17 16 15 14 14 14 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 8 2 3 4 8 1 2 8 2 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 18. 21. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 17. 20. 22. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY