* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962007 07/06/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 36 37 38 36 37 38 37
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 36 37 38 36 37 38 37
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 27
SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 17 15 23 22 23 25 25 32 26 28 14
SHEAR DIR 265 278 281 261 259 287 257 283 278 298 282 311 329
SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 129 133 135 134 134 136 142 143 144 145 143 134 126
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 135 138 137 137 140 145 145 144 143 139 132 116
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 11 10 11 9 11
700-500 MB RH 46 49 51 54 55 56 51 54 51 54 51 65 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -28 -14 -17 -16 3 21 40 49 63 81 67
200 MB DIV -25 -2 2 2 2 -2 -2 -14 -31 6 5 59 49
LAND (KM) 726 677 658 611 490 218 266 357 296 258 276 67 78
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.4 15.7 11.6 11.7
LONG(DEG W) 50.5 52.0 53.4 55.1 56.7 60.0 63.3 66.4 69.4 72.2 74.8 75.0 75.0
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 13 12 10 0
HEAT CONTENT 6 7 2 4 2 1 5 6 6 5 5 2 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -15. -22. -25. -27. -27.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 13. 14. 16.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 11. 12. 13. 12.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL962007 INVEST 07/06/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962007 INVEST 07/06/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY