* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 07/06/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 50 53 54 52 48 44 40
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 42 50 53 54 52 48 44 40
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 27 27 26 23 20
SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 13 12 14 12 8 4 12 12 15 17 17
SHEAR DIR 40 39 28 21 29 28 9 318 293 295 318 320 348
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.4 27.3 25.9 24.4 23.6 22.4 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 159 158 158 150 138 122 106 98 85 87
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 2 1 2
700-500 MB RH 68 72 74 74 72 73 73 67 62 55 52 44 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -28 -24 -28 -26 -29 -22 -7 10 19 12 8 0
200 MB DIV 70 98 77 67 38 36 11 -2 17 -1 5 -28 -17
LAND (KM) 971 989 1007 1039 1081 1148 1175 1176 1201 1236 1321 1354 1489
LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 12.4 13.7 15.3 16.5 17.5 17.9 19.1 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.7 107.0 108.5 110.0 112.9 115.5 117.8 119.7 121.3 122.7 124.3 125.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 8 7 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 24. 29. 29. 28. 26. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 26. 31. 32. 30. 26. 21. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 33. 34. 32. 28. 24. 20.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/06/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/06/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY