* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP952007 07/06/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 46 49 50 48 39 37 39
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 40 46 49 50 48 39 37 39
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 24 25 25 23 19 17
SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 9 6 7 1 3 7 9 21 61 5 5
SHEAR DIR 26 66 30 337 347 216 179 205 228 219 240 140 80
SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.4 26.5 25.9 24.8 24.6 23.2 25.6 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 148 149 141 131 125 113 114 93 125 122
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.7 -53.0 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 6
700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 73 70 66 60 56 52 47 24 48 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 15 25 20 31 36 47 39 27 -66 -14 -11
200 MB DIV 7 0 22 26 31 48 32 30 38 66 -7 32 -19
LAND (KM) 1986 2055 2130 2205 2280 2425 2468 2067 1682 1337 1267 1236 1078
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.4 10.6 11.7 13.1 14.4 15.5 24.2 13.4 13.1
LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.3 123.5 125.0 126.5 129.7 133.2 136.6 139.9 142.9 143.6 145.1 147.2
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 16 18 18 18 16 26 8 29 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 23. 22. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 3. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 23. 27. 28. 26. 17. 15. 16.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 29. 30. 28. 19. 17. 19.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP952007 INVEST 07/06/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952007 INVEST 07/06/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY