* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SAMTEST CP802007 07/07/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 28 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 61 68 68 66 67 71 59 23 7 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 269 265 262 258 248 236 246 355 296 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.3 23.7 22.9 22.8 23.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 97 100 102 105 107 107 99 89 87 93 102 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 20 19 20 21 20 22 27 32 34 40 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 35 39 30 21 -15 -70 -120 -155 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -24 -10 3 -7 26 11 28 -11 17 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1219 1171 1124 1052 985 827 766 850 974 1175 1241 1193 1057 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.7 23.7 26.4 28.5 30.2 30.4 29.4 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.7 144.1 144.8 145.4 147.2 148.9 150.3 151.3 150.5 149.6 148.9 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 13 10 6 4 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -27. -36. -41. -44. -49. -52. -55. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -14. -26. -39. -47. -54. -58. -64. -68. -71. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -8. -12. -23. -36. -47. -54. -56. -60. -64. -66. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP802007 SAMTEST 07/07/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 66.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 41.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP802007 SAMTEST 07/07/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY