* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* SAMTEST CP802007 07/07/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 62 65 61 61 68 64 41 20 11 10 15 16 23
SHEAR DIR 267 266 266 265 259 242 242 246 325 333 337 6 25
SST (C) 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.5 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.0 23.3 23.3
POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 98 101 103 105 109 107 99 95 91 95 94
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.5 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 19 19 20 21 22 28 35 36 42 40 50 47 51
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 23 30 29 2 -30 -82 -127 -157 -138 -111 -126
200 MB DIV -8 0 -15 3 13 24 52 -18 -2 -46 -3 -20 -7
LAND (KM) 1177 1134 1093 1005 922 784 703 795 940 1077 1260 1314 1385
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.9 24.0 26.3 28.2 28.9 29.9 28.9 28.4
LONG(DEG W) 143.7 144.1 144.4 145.2 146.0 147.7 149.9 151.0 151.4 150.1 148.5 146.5 145.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 10 11 13 13 11 7 8 8 8 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 0.9 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -6. -15. -24. -31. -36. -38. -38. -38. -39.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -29. -38. -47. -53. -57. -59. -60. -62.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. 6. 6.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -13. -25. -35. -46. -53. -55. -55. -56. -57.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP802007 SAMTEST 07/07/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 63.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 43.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5
Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP802007 SAMTEST 07/07/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY