* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 07/08/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 46 47 42 36 26 21 17 DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 46 47 42 36 26 21 17 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 33 31 26 22 19 16 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 10 11 11 15 17 16 18 15 12 14 16
SHEAR DIR 16 356 347 324 318 304 293 305 327 342 346 313 258
SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 25.8 24.2 23.2 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 143 137 122 105 94 89 87 85 86 85
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 3
700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 66 63 62 55 49 43 36 34 35 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 3 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -8 -8 -3 -1 12 21 23 16 19 10 18 1
200 MB DIV 20 31 26 14 27 29 8 -1 -6 -43 -44 -19 -3
LAND (KM) 1153 1170 1200 1219 1252 1303 1370 1468 1580 1702 1856 1984 2118
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.1 17.2 17.9 18.3 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.3 117.5 118.6 120.7 122.7 124.5 126.5 128.5 130.4 131.8 133.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 10 10 8 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 12. 8. -2. -6. -11. -13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 17. 11. 1. -4. -8. -10.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/08/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/08/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY