* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942007 07/08/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 42 39 32 26 22 21 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 42 39 32 26 22 21 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 12 10 12 14 14 6 16 14 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 341 348 342 310 306 313 294 332 345 340 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.2 25.9 24.8 23.8 23.2 22.7 22.5 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 141 136 122 111 101 95 90 87 88 89 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 62 60 58 54 44 36 31 28 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 -7 -4 -7 13 24 13 20 13 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 23 31 41 30 30 16 -6 -31 -17 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1250 1276 1310 1339 1372 1410 1499 1622 1726 1870 2026 2174 1964 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.7 18.8 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 117.0 117.9 118.8 119.7 121.5 123.4 125.5 127.7 130.1 132.2 134.1 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 10. 5. 0. -5. -7. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 17. 14. 7. 1. -3. -4. -6. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/08/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/08/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY