* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 07/08/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 36 34 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 36 34 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 10 11 14 13 14 13 20 16 17 18 15
SHEAR DIR 339 348 347 324 314 322 303 291 324 322 317 305 308
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.9 25.6 24.7 23.7 23.2 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.8
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 139 133 119 110 100 95 87 86 86 90
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 3
700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 59 60 56 51 44 37 36 35 30 34
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -13 -12 -16 -7 5 11 5 -3 -9 -21 -25 -19
200 MB DIV 29 26 24 13 20 23 13 -39 -34 -47 -20 -24 1
LAND (KM) 1276 1299 1327 1360 1384 1438 1547 1678 1790 1918 2064 2137 1971
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.8 18.6 18.8 19.4 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.6 118.4 119.3 120.2 122.0 124.0 126.3 128.7 130.9 132.7 134.4 136.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 8 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 5. 1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 9. 4. -3. -9. -14. -17. -18.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/08/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/08/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY