* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942007 07/09/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 32 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 18 15 17 17 22 21 33 17 23 26 SHEAR DIR 346 348 318 311 317 310 297 329 315 320 297 256 237 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.2 23.9 22.9 22.1 21.7 21.3 21.2 21.4 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 130 123 115 102 91 83 78 73 72 74 75 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 57 58 50 43 31 27 26 23 24 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 -9 -5 -5 2 0 -7 -23 -23 -53 -54 -80 200 MB DIV 35 30 11 0 0 -4 -20 -48 -63 -36 -5 3 -10 LAND (KM) 1097 1129 1162 1169 1184 1286 1396 1496 1607 1688 1766 1833 1852 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.7 118.5 119.4 120.2 122.2 124.2 126.4 128.4 129.8 131.0 132.4 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -13. -20. -29. -35. -39. -42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 7. 4. 0. -8. -17. -27. -32. -36. -40. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/09/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/09/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY