* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST CP902007 07/09/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 42 40 37 36 37 36 38
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 42 40 37 36 37 36 38
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 24 22 20 19 18
SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 13 11 9 17 16 27 32 26 23 25 18
SHEAR DIR 3 356 351 348 20 103 195 204 229 233 208 220 243
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 139 135 132 129 125 126 129 130 131 135
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 69 71 72 71 69 68 62 57 50 45 47 45 48
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -28 -36 -37 1 29 19 7 -4 -8 -3 18
200 MB DIV 14 15 23 33 25 97 68 29 16 6 -14 5 0
LAND (KM) 1925 1780 1638 1468 1302 1026 784 600 552 621 764 964 1226
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.9 9.3 10.0 10.6 11.7 12.7 13.6 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.6 11.6
LONG(DEG W) 141.0 142.4 143.8 145.4 146.9 149.6 152.1 154.5 156.5 158.6 160.6 162.9 164.3
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 17 15 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 17. 14. 11. 11. 10. 11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 15. 12. 11. 12. 11. 13.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP902007 INVEST 07/09/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902007 INVEST 07/09/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY