* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942007 07/09/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 9 6 10 13 25 24 29 24 7 3 13 SHEAR DIR 308 314 316 321 287 282 322 300 293 237 301 329 227 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.0 23.5 22.3 21.2 20.6 20.1 19.9 20.4 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 129 121 113 97 85 73 67 63 63 68 63 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 53 51 46 37 35 29 28 28 39 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 -16 -17 -24 -29 -30 -51 -54 -70 -85 -71 -44 200 MB DIV 12 -1 3 -6 -23 -15 -39 -15 9 -17 2 3 28 LAND (KM) 1132 1142 1158 1182 1213 1316 1373 1410 1444 1396 1192 996 749 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.9 22.3 24.5 27.6 31.2 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.0 119.7 120.5 121.3 123.1 125.0 126.7 128.0 128.9 129.8 130.7 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 14 17 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -5. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -17. -27. -35. -40. -41. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -16. -27. -34. -38. -39. -41. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/09/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/09/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY