* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP942007 07/09/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 32 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 32 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 32 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 7 10 12 14 27 34 32 19 10 28 38
SHEAR DIR 318 328 340 302 296 302 322 294 252 254 226 196 206
SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.6 23.0 21.8 20.8 20.1 19.7 20.0 18.1 14.3
POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 124 117 108 92 80 70 63 64 66 66 66
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.8 -55.0 -55.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 2
700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 52 51 42 39 33 29 30 36 30 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -17 -30 -35 -37 -51 -63 -77 -73 -52 -20 0
200 MB DIV -2 0 -21 -25 -15 -42 -20 -9 11 -13 49 16 46
LAND (KM) 1128 1131 1138 1170 1208 1293 1320 1337 1352 1144 846 475 61
LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.1 19.0 20.3 21.8 24.1 27.0 31.9 36.7 40.9
LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.3 119.9 120.7 121.5 123.3 125.1 126.5 127.9 128.4 129.3 128.0 124.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 20 24 24 24
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -5. -9. -10. -13. -20.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -5. -14. -24. -36. -45. -49. -54. -62.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 2. 1. -5. -13. -25. -37. -45. -48. -53. -61.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP942007 INVEST 07/09/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942007 INVEST 07/09/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY