* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR EP042007 07/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 10 12 12 23 24 29 30 26 18 19 10 SHEAR DIR 332 324 294 290 291 319 317 294 261 274 268 275 275 SST (C) 26.5 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.3 22.9 22.2 21.7 21.4 21.1 21.1 21.3 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 115 110 105 91 83 78 74 71 71 73 75 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 50 48 44 40 40 37 34 30 35 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -39 -46 -55 -62 -89 -80 -92 -86 -103 -78 -93 200 MB DIV 1 -29 -27 -9 -10 -28 -21 12 -18 -6 -24 -19 -35 LAND (KM) 1074 1092 1113 1148 1187 1271 1350 1439 1532 1639 1765 1852 1896 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.7 120.2 120.9 121.5 123.1 124.8 126.4 127.9 129.5 131.1 132.7 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -18. -28. -38. -47. -53. -57. -60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -13. -24. -35. -45. -51. -55. -57. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY