* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR EP042007 07/10/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 15 16 19 26 31 29 25 18 12 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 277 286 282 292 309 320 301 268 279 299 263 273 N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.2 21.7 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.4 21.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 104 96 90 83 78 74 73 71 75 80 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 50 42 44 38 36 35 32 35 30 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -32 -37 -41 -46 -66 -76 -85 -87 -100 -81 -92 N/A 200 MB DIV -32 -40 -26 -20 -38 -20 -23 3 -15 -27 -28 -20 N/A LAND (KM) 1097 1125 1156 1200 1242 1305 1391 1500 1632 1771 1875 2024 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.3 122.1 122.8 124.3 125.9 127.6 129.3 131.0 132.5 134.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -30. -40. -49. -56. -59. -61. -62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -10. -21. -31. -42. -51. -56. -58. -60. -60. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 1.8 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY