* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR EP042007 07/10/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 15 17 26 27 32 28 20 12 10 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 269 277 287 307 316 314 295 279 290 297 271 221 N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.3 21.8 21.3 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.4 21.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 103 95 89 84 79 73 72 71 71 74 79 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 44 40 42 40 35 30 31 28 29 27 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -34 -39 -43 -52 -79 -74 -93 -85 -100 -97 -98 N/A 200 MB DIV -37 -31 -34 -33 -11 -24 5 -17 -15 -32 -26 -29 N/A LAND (KM) 1106 1138 1174 1211 1232 1313 1408 1522 1663 1799 1867 2023 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.2 21.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.2 121.9 122.7 123.4 125.0 126.6 128.2 130.0 131.7 133.2 135.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -26. -37. -48. -57. -62. -65. -66. -67. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -7. -12. -25. -36. -48. -58. -63. -65. -66. -67. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY