* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FOUR EP042007 07/10/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 25 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 14 25 24 29 25 16 10 11 8 25 N/A
SHEAR DIR 275 289 304 314 319 308 289 279 261 227 239 210 N/A
SST (C) 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.1 21.7 21.3 21.1 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.4 21.8 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 100 93 88 82 78 73 71 70 70 70 74 78 N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A
700-500 MB RH 50 45 42 40 39 33 32 32 27 28 25 24 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -41 -43 -46 -59 -69 -87 -90 -92 -103 -100 -103 -79 N/A
200 MB DIV -26 -28 -43 -25 -13 -20 -8 -23 -24 -30 -18 -28 N/A
LAND (KM) 1097 1138 1173 1193 1220 1303 1400 1514 1645 1778 1856 1999 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.2 21.5 21.6 21.9 22.1 21.6 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.7 122.4 123.2 124.0 125.5 126.8 128.3 129.8 131.4 132.9 134.4 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -25. -26.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -17. -30. -42. -53. -60. -65. -68. -70. -71.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -8. -14. -27. -39. -51. -59. -64. -66. -68. -70.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 1.6 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042007 FOUR 07/10/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY