* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR EP042007 07/11/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 23 25 23 26 19 15 3 10 15 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 289 301 323 317 301 280 272 249 228 204 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.2 20.9 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 88 84 81 78 72 69 67 68 69 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 37 38 35 36 34 30 29 28 25 24 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -29 -39 -52 -64 -74 -89 -97 -109 -105 -102 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -42 -43 -24 -31 16 -27 -31 -18 -18 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1233 1267 1299 1327 1359 1410 1491 1587 1684 1685 1828 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.4 22.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.3 124.1 124.8 125.5 126.7 128.1 129.5 131.0 132.0 133.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -18. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -20. -33. -43. -52. -58. -62. -65. -66. -66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -14. -19. -32. -43. -54. -60. -62. -63. -64. -63. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP042007 FOUR 07/11/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 1.2 Prob of RI= 1% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 1.8 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042007 FOUR 07/11/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY