* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972007 07/13/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 47 59 68 71 68 62 59 56 49 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 47 59 68 71 68 62 59 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 53 53 50 46 41 35 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 3 2 1 8 2 3 10 8 1 11 10 SHEAR DIR 16 12 63 14 192 294 203 282 218 209 167 352 343 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.3 25.4 24.2 23.4 24.9 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 160 159 156 151 139 119 107 98 110 81 79 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 77 73 69 66 62 59 54 60 44 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 1 6 14 49 63 66 66 53 89 -14 -29 200 MB DIV 25 21 33 35 31 52 56 63 29 23 24 -26 -13 LAND (KM) 783 846 913 1005 1083 1180 1359 1546 1736 1964 2327 1791 1936 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.3 15.1 19.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 109.0 110.4 112.1 113.7 117.0 120.5 123.8 127.0 130.4 132.9 130.3 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 7 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 22. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 40. 39. 34. 32. 27. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 17. 22. 34. 43. 46. 43. 37. 34. 31. 24. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 07/13/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 5.1 Prob of RI= 85% is 6.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 07/13/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED