* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972007 07/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 41 44 43 43 44 40 34 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 41 44 43 43 44 40 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 35 36 34 31 27 23 20 SHEAR (KTS) 2 2 2 3 5 9 9 7 12 9 14 15 2 SHEAR DIR 334 289 266 311 269 311 311 243 273 259 272 292 32 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.6 25.5 23.8 23.1 22.5 22.3 22.5 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 152 149 142 120 102 94 88 86 82 85 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 79 74 71 69 66 61 58 53 52 48 39 40 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 6 4 4 7 10 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -8 -6 2 8 31 32 52 40 27 29 33 -9 200 MB DIV 19 0 4 31 34 43 29 38 6 16 29 0 -20 LAND (KM) 826 900 986 995 1029 1180 1335 1550 1720 1893 2075 2023 2018 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.4 19.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.4 112.7 114.2 115.6 118.8 121.9 125.2 128.1 130.6 133.2 135.5 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 15 13 12 12 1 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 17. 17. 15. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 4. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 14. 8. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 19. 18. 18. 19. 15. 9. 6. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 07/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 07/13/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY