* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972007 07/13/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 40 39 34 32 30 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 40 39 34 32 30 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 30 27 24 21 18 16 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 5 7 9 13 10 9 10 11 19 10 10 SHEAR DIR 321 319 334 304 301 315 331 278 259 255 301 305 314 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 28.1 26.7 24.4 23.1 22.5 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 148 147 133 109 95 88 83 83 83 81 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 69 69 67 64 57 53 49 45 39 33 31 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -10 0 6 16 38 45 23 25 15 11 4 200 MB DIV -8 3 22 24 15 28 18 16 -12 -18 -11 -29 -17 LAND (KM) 854 931 935 959 1008 1144 1342 1520 1703 1889 2049 2101 1988 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.5 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.3 113.6 115.1 116.5 119.5 122.7 125.7 128.6 131.0 133.1 134.7 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 14. 14. 10. 7. 4. 2. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 14. 9. 7. 5. 3. -1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 07/13/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 07/13/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY