* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972007 07/14/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 41 43 45 43 35 31 28 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 41 43 45 43 35 31 28 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 25 23 20 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 8 10 11 17 11 3 2 10 10 20 15 SHEAR DIR 328 348 333 323 322 306 334 21 227 253 294 283 308 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.2 26.7 24.6 23.7 22.8 22.4 22.3 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 149 148 133 111 101 91 86 84 82 79 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 66 61 59 58 56 54 49 39 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 6 8 6 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -24 -21 -10 -8 -1 52 54 31 25 14 2 -2 200 MB DIV 6 21 22 12 20 31 39 34 12 10 -25 -22 0 LAND (KM) 930 971 992 1033 1092 1228 1418 1614 1779 1967 2105 2080 2029 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.5 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.5 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.2 114.4 115.8 117.1 120.1 123.2 126.1 129.1 131.6 133.6 134.9 135.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 11 9 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 2. 3. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 15. 9. 4. 0. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 18. 10. 6. 3. -4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP972007 INVEST 07/14/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972007 INVEST 07/14/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY