* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052007 07/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 39 35 30 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 39 35 30 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 37 36 33 29 25 21 18 15 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 12 14 14 7 5 2 12 14 17 14 11 SHEAR DIR 359 336 329 321 309 307 327 259 318 325 298 322 303 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.1 24.9 23.5 22.6 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 136 114 99 89 84 83 82 80 81 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 65 60 59 59 55 53 50 40 37 36 34 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -9 -12 -11 -7 24 49 35 41 16 17 27 24 200 MB DIV 25 5 19 37 26 9 26 21 11 -24 -31 0 -10 LAND (KM) 957 992 1040 1116 1174 1322 1509 1668 1857 2032 2091 1968 1905 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.5 116.6 118.0 119.3 122.2 125.1 128.0 130.7 133.1 134.8 136.0 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 12 10 7 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 8. 2. -5. -10. -14. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 5. 0. -6. -10. -14. -16. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY