* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962007 07/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 35 44 49 49 51 48 47 48 46 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 35 44 49 49 51 48 47 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 25 SHEAR (KTS) 12 17 14 14 10 11 5 4 6 2 6 14 15 SHEAR DIR 178 186 180 190 180 196 204 141 197 206 44 68 62 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.0 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.8 25.2 25.9 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 141 135 122 119 114 113 117 124 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.0 -53.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 63 62 58 55 51 43 42 39 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 13 14 13 16 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 38 47 60 67 80 92 98 95 120 123 106 89 76 200 MB DIV 91 82 91 121 108 87 51 35 22 -9 -6 -21 -15 LAND (KM) 1953 2007 2064 2126 2192 2322 2275 1984 1680 1391 1201 1059 952 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.0 12.3 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.0 126.9 128.0 129.1 131.6 134.1 136.8 139.8 143.0 145.8 148.3 149.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 14 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 7. 7. 11. 8. 5. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 26. 27. 30. 27. 25. 26. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 29. 29. 31. 28. 27. 28. 26. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP962007 INVEST 07/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962007 INVEST 07/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY