* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052007 07/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 35 32 27 25 23 21 20 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 35 32 27 25 23 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 35 33 31 28 25 22 20 17 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 13 13 9 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 332 327 313 319 285 339 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.9 26.0 24.1 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 134 125 105 94 92 90 90 91 92 93 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 59 57 56 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 -1 2 15 40 39 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 14 15 7 0 35 35 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 956 1010 1074 1137 1214 1417 1565 1755 1990 2178 1916 1662 1420 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.7 117.8 119.2 120.6 123.6 126.2 128.8 131.5 134.1 136.6 139.0 141.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. -8. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY