* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FIVE EP052007 07/15/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 24 18 15 DIS 16 17
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 24 18 15 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 22 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 11 19 18 17 20 30 33 29 27 23 19 18 14
SHEAR DIR 334 333 332 339 354 21 46 55 60 75 93 96 126
SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.7 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.0 24.7 24.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 139 135 128 120 116 118 120 119 112 109 106
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 61 62 65 67 71 68 71 70 71 66
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -4 -1 8 20 19 27 1 -9 -14 -14 -4
200 MB DIV 23 43 30 12 2 7 43 32 14 0 -6 -19 -10
LAND (KM) 1056 1116 1170 1240 1316 1467 1609 1746 1877 2000 2112 2223 2318
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.6
LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.8 118.8 119.9 121.0 122.8 124.4 125.8 127.1 128.6 130.2 131.8 133.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -10. -11. -9. -8.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY