* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052007 07/15/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 15 20 20 30 27 29 25 18 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 328 329 342 1 23 37 42 59 51 52 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.5 23.9 23.6 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 133 127 120 114 112 108 102 98 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 63 62 66 69 69 74 71 75 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 2 8 14 31 20 42 27 23 -4 -2 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 28 12 5 23 41 35 -17 -14 -15 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1128 1186 1245 1319 1397 1556 1730 1865 2006 2159 2168 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.1 120.1 121.2 122.2 124.1 126.2 128.3 130.3 132.4 134.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -16. -15. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY