* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FIVE EP052007 07/15/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 17 17 20 24 26 21 15 14 11 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 337 342 350 12 12 32 38 51 59 46 49 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.6 23.4 23.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 129 122 115 110 109 106 103 99 97 95 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 61 63 68 69 71 71 71 70 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 16 20 35 29 31 46 50 27 20 1 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 32 19 7 21 26 57 5 -30 -16 5 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1153 1214 1282 1367 1457 1661 1819 1990 2158 2160 1938 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.2 121.3 122.4 123.5 125.7 127.9 130.1 132.3 134.5 136.6 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY