* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052007 07/15/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 15 17 23 21 19 10 9 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 332 357 9 23 45 35 63 25 45 4 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 118 112 108 104 102 98 95 93 92 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 61 61 64 59 60 59 65 62 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 34 25 20 34 36 34 31 25 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 16 18 27 28 31 -28 16 11 4 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1301 1393 1498 1598 1780 1971 2169 2075 1838 1606 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.7 122.9 124.2 125.4 127.9 130.4 132.9 135.2 137.4 139.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/15/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY