* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE EP052007 07/16/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 12 13 14 12 13 9 7 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 329 331 351 353 351 2 8 2 334 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.3 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.6 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 107 101 97 94 89 88 88 89 90 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 59 61 63 63 60 58 57 58 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 28 25 23 32 33 39 29 31 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 18 17 22 38 -22 -15 6 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1275 1371 1470 1559 1657 1856 2073 2045 1791 1539 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.7 123.1 124.4 125.9 127.4 130.1 132.8 135.3 137.7 140.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -14. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP052007 FIVE 07/16/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052007 FIVE 07/16/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY