* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* COSME EP062007 07/17/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 63 60 52 47 41 37 33 30 30 29
V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 63 60 52 47 41 37 33 30 30 29
V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 63 60 57 50 44 40 37 35 34 32 31
SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 13 11 14 11 9 3 4 13 14 16 15
SHEAR DIR 96 86 92 71 59 68 54 348 268 275 261 272 263
SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.0 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.8 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 113 114 107 106 107 110 112 114 123 133
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 65 61 61 59 61 58 58 54 52 50 46 44 41
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 86 77 73 66 64 63 61 48 34 36 14 12 13
200 MB DIV 54 41 10 -16 -8 1 -25 -10 -4 -22 -2 -16 -30
LAND (KM) 2277 2339 2267 2149 2031 1758 1498 1167 814 483 223 18 235
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.2 18.1 18.6 18.6 18.9 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.0 133.9 135.0 136.1 138.6 141.0 144.0 147.2 150.3 152.9 155.9 159.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 15 16 13 13 15 15
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -3. -6. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -35. -36.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -5. -13. -18. -24. -28. -32. -35. -35. -36.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/17/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/17/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY