* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/17/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 16 V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 12 12 15 8 6 9 16 18 21 28 26 SHEAR DIR 79 66 63 59 47 82 333 313 301 287 283 277 270 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.3 26.0 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 115 112 110 109 110 112 114 117 124 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 52 52 54 51 50 52 49 47 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 92 80 77 71 70 65 56 39 27 13 6 -10 -17 200 MB DIV 17 15 20 9 -5 -16 15 -16 -37 -11 3 -8 11 LAND (KM) 2173 2053 1933 1804 1674 1375 1050 727 394 133 80 284 387 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.8 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.0 137.1 138.3 139.5 142.3 145.3 148.3 151.4 154.1 156.6 158.8 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -22. -23. -22. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -12. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -23. -21. -21. -19. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/17/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/17/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY