* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/18/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 26 26 22 24 23 26 28 32 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 26 26 22 24 23 26 28 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 32 30 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 15 13 10 5 3 11 7 10 8 17 12 SHEAR DIR 76 61 52 69 94 17 264 304 295 288 258 281 278 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.7 26.2 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 113 110 109 111 112 113 116 120 126 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 54 51 52 56 56 56 55 50 49 47 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 11 12 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 75 74 67 68 53 47 22 6 4 -1 -6 -15 200 MB DIV 21 16 13 5 9 -11 -4 -4 -12 -12 -18 9 -16 LAND (KM) 1960 1834 1708 1565 1422 1121 793 487 257 111 216 377 462 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.6 141.9 144.7 147.8 150.8 153.4 155.7 157.6 159.9 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 15 14 14 12 10 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -5. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -7. -6. -9. -8. -6. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -13. -11. -12. -8. -7. -3. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/18/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/18/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY