* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* COSME EP062007 07/18/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 31 29 27 27 28 28 29 32
V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 31 29 27 27 28 28 29 32
V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 33 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30
SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 12 6 2 1 8 9 13 14 23 21 22
SHEAR DIR 65 50 66 100 6 207 252 269 293 269 275 272 276
SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 111 111 111 111 113 116 121 128 131 134 134
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 53 48 53 55 53 56 53 52 49 45 41 41 40
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 7 5 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 69 71 64 50 33 17 20 20 2 -2 -1
200 MB DIV 8 15 12 5 2 -2 -19 -5 -19 -10 -12 0 -20
LAND (KM) 1814 1693 1572 1418 1265 952 653 382 150 238 373 502 729
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 18.6 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.5 140.6 142.1 143.5 146.4 149.3 152.2 155.2 157.9 160.4 163.0 165.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -5. -3.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -3.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/18/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/18/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY