* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/18/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 35 33 31 30 32 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 35 33 31 30 32 32 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 7 4 5 4 9 7 9 15 19 26 25 SHEAR DIR 56 70 86 25 1 241 282 292 298 270 285 281 276 SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.3 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 112 112 112 113 115 118 125 130 131 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 52 55 52 55 54 54 53 49 48 45 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 64 71 70 62 56 43 23 11 15 3 -10 -18 0 200 MB DIV 13 12 16 -2 -1 -17 1 -20 -22 -27 6 -18 -13 LAND (KM) 1698 1566 1435 1288 1141 840 524 270 215 434 525 692 915 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.8 142.0 143.4 144.7 147.6 150.8 154.0 156.9 159.7 162.2 164.7 167.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 13 13 12 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -3. -3. -1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/18/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/18/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY