* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* COSME EP062007 07/19/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 28 27 30 32 33 36
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 28 27 30 32 33 36
V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28
SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 6 5 4 6 7 7 8 20 21 22 17
SHEAR DIR 70 92 47 27 98 248 308 318 272 278 289 290 267
SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 112 113 113 114 117 123 129 132 134 135 136
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 51 53 51 51 54 51 49 49 46 42 42 39 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 78 79 71 57 30 41 30 13 5 0 4
200 MB DIV 16 14 1 -9 -10 1 16 -27 -1 -5 -14 -22 -9
LAND (KM) 1569 1428 1287 1126 965 642 321 164 343 472 639 852 1067
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.0
LONG(DEG W) 140.7 142.1 143.4 144.9 146.4 149.6 153.1 156.1 158.8 161.5 164.4 166.9 169.1
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 13 13 11 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 0. 2. 3. 6.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/19/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/19/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY