* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/19/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 32 32 29 27 26 26 28 30 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 32 32 29 27 26 26 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 25 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 5 5 3 9 10 23 30 35 37 31 28 SHEAR DIR 81 49 36 100 186 277 284 290 278 281 280 266 258 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 112 113 113 114 118 126 131 134 136 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 47 48 53 53 49 51 47 41 41 36 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 86 80 78 73 69 45 41 37 27 11 -1 4 -5 200 MB DIV 17 -5 -18 -12 -11 -3 -13 -10 -26 -9 -27 -13 -21 LAND (KM) 1407 1266 1126 965 806 481 229 192 412 541 787 1049 1310 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.6 144.9 146.4 147.9 151.0 154.1 157.1 160.2 163.2 166.3 169.1 171.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 14 15 14 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -4. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/19/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/19/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY