* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * COSME EP062007 07/19/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 38 39 37 35 35 37 40 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 38 39 37 35 35 37 40 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 33 33 33 34 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 3 6 8 9 20 22 29 27 22 18 9 SHEAR DIR 318 158 248 272 275 295 299 280 287 284 256 264 226 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 113 114 115 118 126 131 133 135 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 53 52 48 47 47 43 43 43 39 42 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 8 8 7 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 83 79 75 60 46 44 43 30 16 3 5 -1 -2 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -3 3 19 3 -12 -24 1 -13 18 7 7 LAND (KM) 1111 958 806 647 494 238 207 422 543 775 1044 1321 1591 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.5 147.9 149.5 151.0 154.1 157.2 160.2 163.1 166.1 169.0 171.8 174.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 4. 5. 8. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 5. 5. 7. 10. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP062007 COSME 07/19/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062007 COSME 07/19/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY